Ali Hossein Samadi; Mehdi Emami Meybodi
Abstract
In recent years, in addition to conventional sources of gas, production from unconventional sources is also possible. Iran as a second-largest conventional gas reserves in the world and the fourth producer, intends to enter the gas competition, increase its share in the global gas trade. The purpose ...
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In recent years, in addition to conventional sources of gas, production from unconventional sources is also possible. Iran as a second-largest conventional gas reserves in the world and the fourth producer, intends to enter the gas competition, increase its share in the global gas trade. The purpose of this study is to investigate the long-term exploration, extraction and production of gas and the impact of unconventional gas production. To achieve this objective, System Dynamics approach is used. The model developed consists of three sub-system conventional gas exploration and production cycle, investment and global demand and for the period 2001-2035 is simulated. Model validity is approved and simulation results indicated that, with current trends, the life of undiscovered gas reserves in Iran from 400 years to less than 30 years will be reduce in 2035. Gas production rising from 100 BCM in 2001 to more than 500 BCM in 2035. In other words, the gas production in Iran will be about 5 times over a period of 35 years. Applying scenarios such as increasing the rate of exploration, increased investment in development and increase investment in technological improvements will lead to an increase in gas production. However, the development of unconventional gas could reduce demand security of gas in world and reduce the Iranian gas production in a long-term period. At the same time taking into account all scenarios can increase gas production and thus offset the decline in production is due to the expansion of gas production from unconventional sources.
Mahboubeh Jafari; Karim Eslamlouyan; Ebrahim Hadian; Ali Hossain Samadi
Volume 3, Issue 12 , October 2014, , Pages 20-60
Abstract
The main goal of this paper is to study the effect of social infrastructure on economic growth in a recourse-based economy. To this end, we introduce the quality of social infrastructure into an endogenous growth model. The set up allows us to see how the resource abundance can influence the quality ...
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The main goal of this paper is to study the effect of social infrastructure on economic growth in a recourse-based economy. To this end, we introduce the quality of social infrastructure into an endogenous growth model. The set up allows us to see how the resource abundance can influence the quality of social infrastructure and hence economic growth. We use optimal control theory to solve the model. The analytical solution shows that the impact of non-renewable resources on economic growth depends on the models' parameters. More specifically, we find out that if natural resource abundance leads to deterioration of social infrastructure, it might offset the positive impact of natural resources on economic growth and even might result in lower economic growth rate. We finally calibrate the model for Iran as an energy-rich economy. The calibration results indicate that in order to achieve 8 percent average growth rate, the quality of social infrastructure should improve by at least 4.3 percent. Moreover, when we ignore the quality of social infrastructure, the optimum economic growth rate is found to be 6 percent. This shows that it is important to take into consideration the role of social infrastructure in estimating long run economic growth for Iran. The result of sensitivity analysis indicates that one percent improvement in the index of social infrastructure results in 0.42 percent increase in equilibrium growth rate in Iran. This finding has important policy implications for policymakers and social planners in Iran.
